Prediction of survival time after terminal extubation: the balance between critical care unit utilization and hospice medicine in the COVID-19 pandemic era.

BACKGROUND: We established 1-h and 1-day survival models after terminal extubation to optimize ventilator use and achieve a balance between critical care for COVID-19 and hospice medicine. METHODS: Data were obtained from patients with end-of-life status at terminal extubation from 2015 to 2020. The associations between APACHE II scores and parameters with survival time were analyzed. Parameters with a p-value ≤ 0.2 in univariate analysis were included in multivariate models. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for the multivariate analysis of survival time at 1 h and 1 day. RESULTS: Of the 140 enrolled patients, 76 (54.3%) died within 1 h and 35 (25%) survived beyond 24 h. No spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) within the past 24 h, minute ventilation (MV) ≥ 12 L/min, and APACHE II score ≥ 25 were associated with shorter survival in the 1 h regression model. Lower MV, SpO2 ≥ 96% and SBT were related to longer survival in the 1-day model. Hospice medications did not influence survival time. CONCLUSION: An APACHE II score of ≥ 25 at 1 h and SpO2 ≥ 96% at 1 day were strong predictors of disposition of patients to intensivists. These factors can help to objectively tailor pathways for post-extubation transition and rapidly allocate intensive care unit resources without sacrificing the quality of palliative care in the era of COVID-19. Trial registration They study was retrospectively registered. IRB No.: 202101929B0.

Serial Increases in Human Leukocyte Antigen-DR Expression and Decreases in Interleukin-10 Expression in Alveolar Monocytes of Survivors of Pneumonia-Related Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

ARDS is a potentially lethal syndrome. HLA-DR expression in monocytes reflects their activation and antigen-presenting capacity. However, the correlation between clinical outcomes and HLA-DR expression in alveolar monocytes/macrophages in patients with pneumonia-related ARDS remains unclear. Thus, we determined the trends of HLA-DR and cytokine expressions in alveolar monocytes using repeated measurements to answer this question. Thirty-one pneumonia patients with respiratory failure and ARDS without coronavirus disease 2019 between November 2019 and November 2021 were enrolled in our intensive care unit and three without complete data were excluded. Interleukin (IL)-10, IL-12, and HLA-DR expression in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) monocytes were determined on days one and eight. Monocyte HLA-DR expression (mHLA-DR) and CD4 T lymphocytes percentages in BAL cells of survivors increased remarkably after seven days. Monocyte IL-10 expression and monocytes percentages in BAL cells of survivors decreased substantially after seven days. The mHLA-DR was negatively correlated with disease severity scores on day one and eight. In conclusion, serial increases in HLA-DR expression and decreases in IL-10 expression were observed in BAL monocytes of survivors of pneumonia-related ARDS. More studies are needed to confirm this point of view, and then development of a therapeutic agent restoring mHLA-DR and preventing IL-10 production can be considered.